Just noticed that this 19-year-old d-man is leading his defensive minded junior team in scoring amongst defencemen. He is outproducing Noah Juulsen offensively. Now I know Juulsen is probably still the better defender but what do you guys think Davis will project to become? Will he get drafted this year? He seems to be having a breakout season this year.
Its a consensus fantasy ranking with contributions from Steve Kournianos, Scott Wheeler, Mark Seidel, Brock Otten, Ryan Wagman and Dobber scouts. http://www.dobberprospects.com/14904-2/
After looking at the pst couple of first rounds (2013,14,15, 16), I noticed something peculiar about the 2014 draft. Compared to the others (except '16 as it's too soon to judge), quite a few early first rounders from that draft have either completely failed to pan out or have not made any significant impact since they were drafted. These players include:
Michael Dal Colle - 5th
Jake Virtanen - 6th
Haydn Fleury - 7th
Nick Ritchie - 10th
Brendan Perlini - 12th
Although Virtanen and Ritchie are slowly making their way into the NHL, I have heard absolutely nothing about Dal Colle and Fleury. Have these two been written off by their teams/ fan bases or are people still holding out hope that they'll eventually pan out?
What the hell happened here exactly? Out of an entire 1st round of supposedly NHL calibre talent, only 5 or 6 guys carved out any sort of NHL career. Unreal.
Hey, just hoping to get some opinions and feedback on some prospects and what the general consensus is regarding their future is.
Sam Steel, Anthony Stolarz, Nikita Gusev, Kirill Kaprizov, Mikhail Sergachev, Samuel Girard.
My thoughts:
Sam Steel - 2nd line center, should make Ducks within next year or two (May start off as a wing), 55-65-ish point upside.
Anthony Stolarz - Will backup one of the Philly goalies next year, maybe start splitting starts with them as soon as 2018-2019. See him as more of a 1A If he ever does become a starter. Lots of goalies breathing down his neck in Philly in a couple of years.
Nikita Gusev - Top six winger, I'm not too familiar with him or his style of play. Do you think he will even come over to N.A? Buyout his contract end of year, or play out contract till end of next year?
Kirill Kaprizov - Top six winger, great shot, good playmaker. If everything goes well could maybe even be a legit first line player, 65+ point upside. In KHL til end of 2017-2018 season.
Mikhail Sergachev - Top Pairing D, plays heavy minutes in all situations. May take some time to get there, but should be Montreal's go to D in a few years (Markov gone/retired, Weber slowing down with age). 40+ point upside
Samuel Girard - Top 4 D, PPQB specialist. Elite level passing and skating, shot isn't great, lacks size but has top end level talent. Boom/Bust player, might not ever become an NHL regular due to size, or could be the next Shattenkirk/Krug. 45+ point upside
Your thoughts? Can be as succinct as you'd like or more in depth.
This is our first top 20 ranking since we last released it in September. Elias Pettersson keeps his position as our #1 in Europe (Hischier who was our #1 in September ceased to be eligible for our list once he started his NA regular season). We have decided to let Liljegren stay put in the ranking for a while longer, but mostly on the basis of last years viewings and the fact that he had mono this year. He will have to improve his play in the second half to retain this position going forward. Necas and Heiskanen are two risers. Two of the big forwards Kostin and Vesalainen have struggled to have a productive season and Kostin is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Theres a couple of new names making their way into top 20, more notable among them are Chytil and Lipanov who are both having solid seasons.
If youd like to read the accompanying write-up that goes a bit more in-depth about certain changes you can click on the link above. There we also have an additional column which also deals with overall projection (This should not be confused with a prediction. This is nothing like a Mock Draft, and the Overall Rank Projection column is just an indicator of where we currently feel these players belong overall. Should they confirm what we have seen so far, that's the range where we would recommend drafting them, which is different from suggesting where they'll eventually get drafted).
The link to our older, September ranking is HERE .
As always, we look forward to continue scouting prospects playing in Europe for the 2016-2017 NHL draft season.
If you've got any questions, I'll be happy to help you out.
As a 15-year-old, Seider started the 2016-17 season playing with Mannheim's U16. There, he played in 11 games and recorded six goals and 13 points before getting called up to the U19 team.
For those who don't know, Mannheim has traditionally been Germany's junior power house. They are currently only second in the league, but certainly have championship aspirations. On that team, Seider has become the No. 1 defenceman who (without knowing exact numbers) regularly leads the team in ice time on even strength and both special teams.
Seider needs to get stronger, but he is already being a physical presence and likes to hit. He plays a solid defensive game but what really makes him interesting is his play with the puck.
He's a great breakout player who can skate the puck up ice with solid top speed and also has good vision and the ability to play strong outlet passes. In the offensive zone, he distributes the puck well and displays strong puck protection skill. Plus, Seider walks the line better than anyone I've seen in this league.
There are things Seider has to work on, but what he is doing at the age of 15 in this league is remarkable. Wouldn't be surprised to see him selected in the 2018 CHL Import Draft.
New York (The Draft Analyst) Quebec City will play host to one of hockeys prestigious pre-draft events Monday when 40 of North Americas elite major junior players participate in the CHL Top Prospects Game. Last years game, held in Vancouver, featured 27 of the eventual first 60 picks in the 2016 NHL Draft, including 15 from the first round.
People make a big deal out of this game, but this year it's warranted since it's Patrick's first high profile event of the draft year. Hischier outperforming him doesn't mean a thing big-picture, but it will make an interesting discussion.
We gave a quick preview of kids we don't talk about as much as others.
What are your thoughts on the NHL bringing back the Supplemental Draft? The Supplemental Draft was used by teams to select collegiate ice hockey players who were not eligible for the standard Entry Draft. Basically was an off shoot to the NHL draft because of age. Would maybe help NHL teams with signing players in off season after college rather than having all NHL teams to choose from to keep the playing field equal. Thoughts?
Bob McKenzie's midterm report just aired. Some notes:
Patrick is ranked #1 on Bob's midterm with 8/10 scouts ranking him there, although there is a major emphasis on his production last year. Bob made sure to state that this outcome leaned heavily on Patrick's production in 2015-16.
According to McKenzie, Nico Hischier has served notice and has made this a two-horse race for first overall. He stated that it is very possible for Hischier to overtake Patrick as the consensus first-overall choice. So far, Patrick's previous accomplishments are standing place of his 2016-17 performance; many of the scouts who voted for Patrick are "intrigued by Hischier."
I have disputed the legitimacy of Patrick's previous level of production, as many of you know. He played for the 2016 WHL Champion Brandon Wheat Kings with Ivan Provorov (2015, 7th overall overall), John Quenneville (2014, 30th overall), and Jayce Hawryluk (2014, 32nd overall) and played with those top-end talents. There is a 20-game sample from last season when at least one of the others was absent from the lineup; in those 20 games, Patrick had just 20 points. I believe that his statistics were inflated last season as a result of playing with those players. He does not drive his line either. That said, Patrick's 2015-16 season appears to be keeping him at #1 for now until he can generate a body of work for his current season.
Shift-by-shift packages of Nolan Patrick with the Brandon Wheat Kings since his return:
This season, Hischier leads the QMJHL in points per game and all first-year draft-eligible players in points per game. Of his 68 points so far in 40 games played, 59 are primary points (counted manually due to poor primary and secondary assist tracking by the Q) (see: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=2162767). Hischier is also the only first-year draft-eligible player who has broken the 2.0 points per game plateau at home, an accomplishment that all of the top-tier CHL first-year draft-eligible players of the past few drafts have done. Since October 26, 2016, he has scored 28 goals, 55 points in 27 games with the Halifax Mooseheads.
Some numbers to consider:
Keep in mind the adjustment that Nico Hischier needed to make over the first month of the season, coming to North America from Switzerland. All other players he has been compared to here grew up playing hockey in North America and played at least one previous CHL season. Nico Hischier is a CHL rookie.
In the first 13 games of the season, he had 13 points.
In 6 away games, he had 6 points. In 7 home games, he had 7 points.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nico Hischier (Since October 26):
Home: 22 goals, 38 points in 15 games (2.53 points per game)
Away: 6 goals, 17 points in 12 games (1.42 points per game)
If he played his full season on the road, his road pace since October 26 would be good for 34 goals, 96 points in 68 games.
If he played all of his games at home, he would be on pace for 99 goals, 172 points over 68 games.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- To compare (raw home/away splits):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2015 NHL Draft:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Connor McDavid (2014-15):
Home: 28 goals, 70 points in 24 games (2.92 points per game)
Away: 16 goals, 50 points in 23 games (2.17 points per game)
2013-14 (McDavid):
Home: 16 goals, 62 points in 28 games (2.21 points per game)
Away: 12 goals, 37 points in 28 games (1.32 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mitch Marner (2014-15):
Home: 22 goals, 71 points in 32 games (2.22 points per game)
Away: 17 goals, 45 points in 25 games (1.8 points per game)
2015-16 [Draft+1] (Marner):
Home: 25 goals, 64 points in 29 games (2.21 points per game)
Away: 14 goals, 52 points in 28 games (1.86 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016 NHL Draft:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pierre-Luc Dubois (2015-16):
Home: 26 goals, 63 points in 30 games (2.1 points per game)
Away: 16 goals, 36 points in 32 games (1.125 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matthew Tkachuk (2015-16):
Home: 17 goals, 56 points in 28 games (2.0 points per game)
Away: 13 goals, 51 points in 29 games (1.76 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2017 NHL Draft:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since we don't have enough of a sample size for Nolan Patrick's current season, we'll look at his 2015-16 home and away splits as well:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nolan Patrick (2015-16):
Home: 21 goals, 50 points in 36 games (1.39 points per game)
Away: 20 goals, 52 points in 36 games (1.44 points per game)
2016-17 (Patrick):
Home: 7 goals, 13 points in 8 games (1.625 points per game)
Away: 1 goal, 4 points in 3 games (1.33 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriel Vilardi (2016-17):
Home: 7 goals, 21 points in 19 games (1.105 points per game)
Away: 10 goals, 15 points in 11 games (1.36 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Owen Tippett (2016-17):
Home: 17 goals, 31 points in 21 games (1.48 points per game)
Away: 19 goals, 30 points in 24 games (1.25 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kailer Yamamoto (2016-17):
Home: 16 goals, 31 points in 21 games (1.48 points per game)
Away: 14 goals, 32 points in 22 games (1.45 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael Rasmussen (2016-17):
Home: 19 goals, 35 points in 23 games (1.52 points per game)
Away: 13 goals, 20 points in 26 games (0.77 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nick Suzuki (2016-17):
Home: 10 goals, 29 points in 24 games (1.21 points per game)
Away: 13 goals, 28 points in 21 games (1.33 points per game)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nikita Popugaev (2016-17):
Home: 9 goals, 25 points in 27 games (0.93 points per game)
Away: 15 goals, 26 points in 25 games (1.04 points per game)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In McKenzie's terms, "Patrick and Hischier are a clear level above the rest of their draft class."
Every player from #3 to #13 received at least one Top Five vote. Every player between #14 and #21 received at least one Top Ten vote.
The program will be aired again tonight at 7 PM ET/ 4 PM PT.
Patrick has decided edge in TSN Hockey Mid-season Draft Ranking
By Bob McKenzie
Jan 31
In the one, and likely only, head-to-head, on-ice meeting this season between Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, give a slight edge to Hischier.
The Halifax Mooseheads’ Swiss centre scored a nifty breakaway goal – started off a Patrick turnover – and added a deft primary assist and a late-game secondary assist in Team Cherry's 7-5 win over Hischier's Team Orr in the CHL's Prospects Game Monday night in Quebec City. Mind you, Patrick also had a pair of assists and turned in a solid winning effort in a game that often featured the two captains playing opposite each other. Hischier was named Team Orr's player of the game.
As for TSN's Mid-Season 2017 NHL Draft Rankings, give the decided but not unanimous edge to Patrick –for now, anyway.
Eight of 10 scouts surveyed by TSN have the 6-foot-2, 198-pound centre from Winnipeg at No. 1 for this year's draft, which will be held June 23-24 in Chicago.
...
"The reality is [in spite of the limited viewings because of a groin injury] Patrick is a known quantity because of what he did last year," an NHL scout said of Patrick's 41 goals and 102 points in 72 games for a powerhouse WHL champion Wheat Kings team, adding league playoff MVP honours to his resume.
...
Patrick is a late 1998 birthdate. He missed being eligible for last year's draft by only four days, so even though he wasn't eligible, he was often being viewed and measured against the top players in the 2016 draft class. . . .The consensus amongst scouts seems to be that were Patrick eligible last year, he would have been ranked/chosen in the No. 5 to 8 region, quite likely behind Matthews, Laine, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi. . . . All it really means is the scouts are familiar with Patrick's game.
...
While Patrick's 8-2 edge amongst scouts in TSN's voting seems lopsided, many of those who chose Patrick over Hischier acknowledged the potential for a legitimate battle the rest of this season for No. 1 draft status in June.
"You can't rule it out," one scout said. "Hischier has been so dynamic in Halifax this season. He's very quick. The numbers he's putting up with a team no one expected to be very good this season are eye- opening and his play at the world junior championship wasn't just good, it was great."
...
"He wasn't the biggest kid before and he most certainly has grown and filled out," a scout said. "He's much stronger than he was. He's extremely difficult to take off the puck."
...
One of the two scouts who put Hischier ahead of Patrick in TSN's mid-season balloting did so for a variety of reasons.
"No one's smarter [in this draft]," the scout said. "His hockey sense is really good, his overall compete level and two-way game, I think, is better. He's more dynamic [than Patrick]. It's not a case of not liking Patrick; he's a good player and he's going to be a good NHL player. I just like Hischier better."
The other scout who took Hischier over Patrick noted the Swiss player's ability to get inside and to the net to make plays.
...
I can only post 20 lines as per the forum rules, but the article covers the top of the draft class very well with regards to its parity, as well as the Hischier vs Patrick debate. For example, Timothy Liljegren was ranked as high as #3 by one scout, and as low as the second round by another; Gabe Vilardi's ranking ranged between #3 and #14; Casey Mittelstadt's ranking ranged from #4 to #13. According to Bob, Cale Makar has the best chance to jump into the Top 10 and challenge Timothy Liljegren as the top defenceman. He also believes that Klim Kostin will likely fall from the Top 10 due to his season-ending injury and the lack of certainty about him.
It is definitely worth your time.
80 players are listed; there are also several honorable mentions.
Here is the continuation of my own probably very flawed outlook at the 2017 draft. As for this list, like the other one, I established player rankings mostly based off of what I've seen of them but also on hearsay.
1 - Nolan Patrick
2 - Nico Hischier
3 - Gabriel Vilardi
4 - Timothy Liljegren
5 - Elias Pettersson
6 - Casey Mittelstadt
7 - Eeli Tolvanen
8 - Klim Kostin
9 - Lias Andersson
10 - Martin Necas
11 - Owen Tippett
12 - Michael Rassmussen
13 - Cody Glass
14 - Kristian Vesalainen
15 - Callan Foote
16 - Cale Makar
17 - Nicholas Suzuki
18 - Miro Heiskanen
19 - Juuso Valimaki
20 - Kailer Yamamoto
21 - Urho Vaakainen
22 - Jake Oettinger
23 - Nicholas Hague
24 - Ryan Poehling
25 - Nikita A. Popugaev
26 - Shane Bowers
27 - Conor Timmins
28 - Matthew Strome
29 - Maxime Comtois
30 - Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
31 - Kole Lind
ISS has released its February rankings for the 2017 NHL Draft.
The Top 13 remains exactly the same as it was one month ago in the January rankings.
In fact, the only changes on the list happen in three places:
1) Maxime Comtois falls from #14 to #17, bumping up the three players previously below him.
2) Sasha Chmelevski falls off the list from #19; everyone else from #20 to #27 gets bumped up one spot.
3) Nick Suzuki rises from being off the list to #27.
Bolded in black are the changes. Every other "block" is color-coordinated.
December rankings (include a description of the system) are HERE.
January rankings are HERE.
As has been noted around the boards over the last month, this is a wide open draft. My rankings generally reflect this, as it has generally settled out into large tiers.
In they yellow group, the top-6 are fairly consistent with Foote, Kostin, Tolvanen, and Vesalainen just behind. They find themselves in the top tier because they tend to rank consistently higher than the guys in the second tier.
In the orange group, there is much more variation. Some rankings have these guys top-5, others will have them 2nd or 3rd round.
The black group (previously red - changed for this edition for legibility), the red group, the purple group, and the dark blue group consist mostly of players that were highly ranked at the start of the season and are dropping now.
The middle blue group (59-107) is starting to take shape. These are mostly newer players to the list (black text) or players that were ranked higher at the start of the season and falling (white text). Most rankings don't go beyond 31 or 50 players, so it's hard to get an accurate read on the deeper rounds so far.
The light blue group and below are mostly players that have only shown up on a single ranking list thus far. I expect these groups to shake out more as deeper lists are published.
As always, corrections are appreciated (teams may be wrong after the CHL trade deadline), and I'll be happy to respond to comments. Keep in mind that this list is similar to Bob Mackenzie's - it's a consensus and I haven't viewed most of the players.
